USA Multifamily Starts Forecast Lower | Embracing Performance Over Perception

Current multifamily starts outlook called for 454K starts in 2026 and 417K in 2027, both revised lower from the prior monthly forecast.
In Late-Q3 2026, multifamily starts were forecast at 455K annualized after a 49K downward revision, while current construction data showed a 407K pace.
Single-family starts also moved lower: 2026 was trimmed to 897K and 2027 to 909K, with near-term quarterly revisions entirely negative in current forecasts.
Broader forecasts stayed fairly steady: GDP expectations were little changed, the 10-yr Treasury path remained near 5%, and near-term inflation projections were raised.
One offset: employment growth expectations improved for 2026, while single-family starts were still expected to recover from Late-Q4 2026 into Late-Q4 2027.